Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb48f…8abe crypto 1020 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,406 (+2%) realized +$4,258 · open −$1,852
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%531W / 481L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,049
sports 1% −$945
other 1% −$498
world 0% −$31
finance 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -48.1% -53.1% 19% 19% -11.6%
≤30d 53 -24.1% -31.4% 36% 30% -7.4%
≤90d 835 -13.7% -21.9% 49% 47% -24.9%
all 1012 -8.4% -17.1% 52% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 50% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 47% -19.4%
15% -32.3% 44% -27.2%
20% -38.9% 37% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$86 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3,351
Realized+$4,258
Unrealized−$1,852
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses531 / 481
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1012 / 1020
History coverage98d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1012 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? No 31¢ 40¢ $1,016 $1,296 +$280 (+28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 7¢ 31¢ $187 $843 +$656 (+350%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? No 9¢ 7¢ $500 $395 −$105 (-21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? No 15¢ 11¢ $500 $375 −$125 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $1,000 $357 −$643 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $1,000 $79 −$921 (-92%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1,000 $4 −$996 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 8¢ 39¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+405%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 378 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $525 +$1,150 +219%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $283 −$266 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $775 −$730 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,049 +$1,070 +102%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $829 −$612 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $522 +$266 +51%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $206 −$20 -10%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 +$7 +240%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$77 +75%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $77 −$75 -97%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $116 −$114 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$8 -69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $102 +$176 +172%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 +$9 +139%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$10 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$19 +37%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$4 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$93 +91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$11 +106%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $103 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $52 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $103 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $103 +$25 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $507 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 29 $258 +$114 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 15¢ $530 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 36¢ $2,024 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 37¢ $549 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 9¢ $532 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? SELL No 35¢ $163 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $168 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 96¢ $1,506 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL No 26¢ $2,060 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $266 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 7¢ $533 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,055 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY No 29¢ $525 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 9¢ $283 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 8¢ $498 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $78 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $7 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $8 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $7 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $7 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 7¢ $7 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 6¢ $7 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,055 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $745 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 63¢ $2,111 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $530 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 8¢ $217 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,351.07 · official $3,351.07 (match) · 2421 history records