Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb48b…648e
other · 788 markets active 17d ago
0.0score
−$1,902,514 -91%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,903,789 · open +$986
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,688
Realized−$1,903,789
Unrealized+$986
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses245 / 874
Whale WR (big bets)1%
Open positions92
Markets (closed)1119 / 788
Avg bet$2,655
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 92 History 1119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20,806
7 days+$20,806
14 days+$20,806
30 days+$20,806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $918 $1,087 +$169 (+18%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 2¢ $-9 $474 +$483 (-5487%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $677 $336 −$341 (-50%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-9 $133 +$142 (-1615%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-9 $74 +$83 (-942%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 4¢ 87¢ $3 $60 +$57 (+2275%)
Will Yang Seung-jo win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? No 67¢ 100¢ $32 $47 +$16 (+49%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-9 $44 +$53 (-605%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-9 $44 +$53 (-605%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes -0¢ 0¢ $-9 $44 +$53 (-605%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 2¢ 68¢ $1 $43 +$41 (+2989%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+8623%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes -0¢ 12¢ $-0 $29 +$29 (-18582%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes -0¢ 11¢ $-0 $27 +$28 (-17585%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 57¢ 90¢ $12 $18 +$7 (+59%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+500%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1620%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+3091%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+3091%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $14 +$13 (+3091%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $12 +$10 (+739%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes -0¢ 4¢ $-0 $9 +$9 (-5621%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes -0¢ 3¢ $-0 $8 +$8 (-5315%)
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? Yes 1¢ 100¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+8548%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes -0¢ 3¢ $-0 $8 +$8 (-5008%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $0 +$8 +8549%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $1 +$5 +669%
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q4 2025 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.5 and 44.9 on October 31 20 Jun 12 $-4 +$4 —%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 63°F or higher on Oct Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will the Reformed Political Party win the fourth most seats in the 202 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Jun 12 $0 +$1 —%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tomio Okamura be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic af Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DeWayne Davis win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 12 $-8 +$8 —%
Will Jazz Hampton win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Am I Okay? (Megan Moroney) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
2025 September 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ghost of Yotei win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on Nove Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivi Jun 12 $1 +$20 +3022%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on No Jun 12 $-5 +$5 —%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 12 $-3 +$3 —%
Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the ele Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island? Jun 12 $642 −$589 -92%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $60 +$4,165 +6907%
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 20? Jun 12 $-8 +$8 —%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Jun 12 $-11 +$11 —%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
2025 September third hottest on record? Jun 12 $85 −$64 -76%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on No Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 12 $-6 +$6 —%
Will ChatGPT’s global AI chatbot market share be 84% or higher on Octo Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Adolph Dagan win TN-7 Special Election? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 12 $-8 +$8 —%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59-60°F on Oc Jun 12 $0 $0 —%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Jun 12 $-8 +$8 —%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on No Jun 12 $-1 +$1 —%
Will Félix González come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilea Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the NOF1.ai competition? Jun 12 $-6 +$6 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 25% −$521,640
other 21% −$403,706
tech 20% −$381,523
culture 17% −$306,628
politics 14% −$265,058
world 2% −$36,601
weather 1% −$8,453
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 16d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 5¢ $351 16d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $46 108d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 1¢ $96 108d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 108d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 108d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $21 108d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 108d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 109d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 50¢ $46 109d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 109d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL Yes 0¢ $131 112d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 117d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 120d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 120d
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 124d
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? SELL Yes 7¢ $28 124d
Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois? SELL No 12¢ $1 124d
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad SELL No 14¢ $1 124d
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? SELL No 15¢ $6 124d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 124d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL No 27¢ $25 124d
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 27¢ $1 124d
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $4 124d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 124d
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 124d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL Yes 68¢ $34 124d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 76¢ $59 124d
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 83¢ $9 124d
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people? SELL Yes 84¢ $32 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 +18.1% +6.9% 7% 7% +25.5%
≤30d 178 +18.1% +6.9% 7% 7% +25.5%
≤90d 178 +18.1% +6.9% 7% 7% +25.5%
all 934 -53.1% -57.6% 6% 5% -98.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 5% -98.1%
10% ← realistic here -61.6% 5% -98.2%
15% -65.3% 5% -98.4%
20% -68.7% 4% -98.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,687.61 · official $2,687.62 (match) · 3500 history records