Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb489…4944 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,069 (-1%) realized −$5,047 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%235W / 38L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,682per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$1,860
other 36% −$849
politics 6% −$2,253
world 3% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 9 -15.4% -23.5% 78% 11% -26.9%
≤90d 105 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 11% -9.4%
all 273 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 8% -10.5%
10% -18.4% 3% -19.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$2,638) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$488 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$5,047
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses235 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage247d
Avg bet$1,682
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $565 $543 −$22 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $538 +$30 +6%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $521 +$17 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $502 +$20 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $211 −$183 -87%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $174 +$37 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic May 29 $161 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: 25 cents vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Re May 28 $155 +$5 +4%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P May 28 $673 −$670 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $817 +$10 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 16 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 15 $956 −$955 -100%
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? May 15 $63 −$2 -3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 14 $956 +$17 +2%
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 13 $930 +$26 +3%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO3) - Prime May 12 $885 +$40 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 12 $874 +$16 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $833 +$42 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $813 +$20 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $779 +$31 +4%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $749 +$32 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner May 09 $975 +$21 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $942 +$33 +4%
LoL: Solary vs ZYB Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 07 $879 +$63 +7%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 07 $862 +$13 +2%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO3) - Prime League 1st May 06 $805 +$55 +7%
LoL: VfB eSports vs G2 NORD (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group B May 06 $796 +$15 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $743 +$53 +7%
LoL: eSuba vs Onion Team (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season May 05 $776 +$23 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 05 $725 +$53 +7%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $634 +$91 +14%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $609 +$24 +4%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner May 04 $616 −$7 -1%
LoL: T1 vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Play May 04 $521 +$96 +18%
Valorant: Mandatory vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 May 03 $412 +$106 +26%
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Team Aether (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham May 03 $816 −$404 -50%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP R May 03 $797 +$19 +2%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Maryville University (BO3) - North Ame May 01 $818 +$32 +4%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs FENNEL (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 01 $844 +$26 +3%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs FURIA fe (BO3) - CCT South America S Apr 30 $793 +$50 +6%
LoL: UB Alma Mater vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 30 $1,124 +$20 +2%
LoL: NightBirds vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season Apr 30 $357 +$4 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $722 +$44 +6%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $700 +$20 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifie Apr 29 $608 +$95 +16%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season Apr 29 $599 +$9 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $831 +$42 +5%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $25 −$12 -50%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Pla Apr 24 $830 +$18 +2%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs Dynasty (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regular Se Apr 23 $827 +$3 +0%
LoL: HMBLE vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Apr 23 $850 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $567 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $568 13h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $538 15h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $538 17h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 97¢ $521 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $521 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $502 24h
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik SELL Alex de Minaur 11¢ $28 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $211 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar SELL Rafael Jodar 100¢ $211 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Rafael Jodar 82¢ $174 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $176 23d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Marta Kostyuk 91¢ $161 23d
Counter-Strike: 25 cents vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Re SELL largadosypelados 100¢ $161 23d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P BUY BIG 88¢ $253 24d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P BUY BIG 87¢ $420 24d
Counter-Strike: 25 cents vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Re BUY largadosypelados 96¢ $155 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $828 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 99¢ $817 24d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $17 36d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Ozarox Esports 98¢ $818 37d
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Ozarox Esports 95¢ $138 37d
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? SELL No 77¢ $19 37d
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY No 72¢ $18 37d
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? SELL No 72¢ $43 37d
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? BUY No 75¢ $45 37d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season SELL Team Heretics Academy 100¢ $973 37d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY Team Heretics Academy 98¢ $173 38d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season BUY Team Heretics Academy 98¢ $783 38d
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season SELL Barça eSports 100¢ $956 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.73 · official $542.73 (match) · 662 history records