Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb487…49bb
crypto · 896 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$5,440 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,440 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152
Realized+$5,440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses761 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)897 / 896
History coverage68d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 897 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$777
7 days−$587
14 days+$197
30 days+$1,378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$69 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5,490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -7.2% -16.0% 81% 31% -15.4%
≤30d 358 +3.0% -6.8% 87% 32% -6.1%
≤90d 897 +5.5% -4.5% 85% 33% -6.1%
all 897 +5.5% -4.5% 85% 33% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 33% -6.1%
10% -13.6% 16% -15.1%
15% -22.0% 10% -23.3%
20% -29.6% 7% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.34 · official $152.34 (match) · 1683 history records