Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb486…214b crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$222 (-5%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%104W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$316
14 days−$303
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$339
world 14% +$71
other 2% −$51
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 -4.7% -13.7% 58% 45% -15.7%
≤30d 182 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 43% -15.4%
≤90d 182 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 43% -15.4%
all 182 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 43% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -15.4%
10% -21.9% 28% -23.5%
15% -29.5% 22% -30.9%
20% -36.4% 14% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses104 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)182 / 186
History coverage26d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 67¢ 100¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 79¢ 100¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+27%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 25¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+294%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 26¢ 100¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+289%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 35¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+186%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+52%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 88¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +279%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $124 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$9 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$11 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 1h
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.19 · official $162.19 (match) · 566 history records