Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb483…0880 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (460 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 118L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day459.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$3
world 27% +$19
economics 20% −$1
politics 13% −$1
crypto 10% +$21
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (460 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 127 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.4%
all 127 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover459.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×57.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.17 per $1 lost it wins $5.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)127 / 137
History coverage8d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day459.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $538 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $78 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $704 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,059 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $4,306 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $2,005 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $558 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $231 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $503 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $1,266 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $701 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 31m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 31m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 31m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 32m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 32m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 36m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 36m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 40m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 40m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 40m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $19 51m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $19 51m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 52m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 98¢ $20 53m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 53m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.23 · official $156.55 (match) · 3500 history records