Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb483…a4ab other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-44%) realized −$17 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$44
sports 18% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-85.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -83.8% -85.4% 0% 0% -85.3%
≤30d 3 -83.8% -85.4% 0% 0% -85.3%
≤90d 3 -83.8% -85.4% 0% 0% -85.3%
all 3 -83.8% -85.4% 0% 0% -85.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -85.4% 0% -85.3%
10% -86.8% 0% -86.7%
15% -88.1% 0% -88.0%
20% -89.2% 0% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -94% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -84% · $-wt -94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$11 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -71%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 31m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 43m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $2 43m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $9 47m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 52m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 52m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 52m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 56m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 56m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 19 history records