Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb481…c880 other 100 markets active 4d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$3
politics 36% −$3
sports 8% −$38
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -3.3% -12.5% 6% 3% -10.2%
all 100 -3.6% -12.8% 8% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -10.1%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.7%
15% -28.8% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage108d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $126 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $95 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $99 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $126 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $46 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 25d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 27d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 30d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 32d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 40d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 41d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 41d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 42d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 42d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 43d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 43d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 43d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $46 43d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $46 43d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 43d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 44d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 44d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 44d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 45d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 45d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 45d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 46d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 46d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records