Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb481…4db8 sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$81 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%122W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$26
14 days−$21
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$111
other 4% −$54
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -11.4% -19.8% 41% 40% -11.4%
≤30d 190 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 45% -6.0%
≤90d 267 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 45% -8.2%
all 267 -1.2% -10.6% 46% 45% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 45% -8.2%
10% -19.2% 45% -17.0%
15% -27.0% 45% -25.0%
20% -34.1% 44% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses122 / 145
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage74d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 22.5 Over 47¢ 30¢ $23 $14 −$9 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -93%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$49 +156%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $14 +$15 +103%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $30 +$17 +57%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$36 +143%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$31 +158%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$20 +132%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 +$49 +121%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $9 +$6 +63%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 −$13 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 +$24 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $35 +$25 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$19 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Prizmic vs. Hijikata: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $9 +$13 +143%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +30%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$30 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 1h
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Fonseca 48¢ $15 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 12h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran $0 12h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $80 12h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) SELL Minnesota Lynx 99¢ $29 13h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 49¢ $10 14h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 14h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $4 14h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 14h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) SELL Las Vegas Aces $1 14h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $10 15h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $14 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 19h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $10 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $30 19h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $31 20h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $17 22h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $48 24h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 63¢ $30 25h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 42¢ $20 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $9 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $30 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 45¢ $19 34h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $12 35h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $62 35h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $50 35h
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $35 35h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $25 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.44 · official $14.44 (match) · 403 history records