Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb481…4253 crypto 271 markets active 10h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%150W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$335
weather 1% −$21
other 1% $0
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
sports 0% +$7
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -19.0% -26.7% 38% 3% -25.1%
≤30d 193 +19.2% +7.9% 51% 41% -9.6%
≤90d 218 +15.1% +4.1% 51% 42% -11.5%
all 271 +10.3% -0.2% 55% 40% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 40% -13.1%
10% -9.8% 28% -21.4%
15% -18.5% 18% -29.0%
20% -26.5% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses150 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)271 / 271
History coverage108d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 271 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 15 $5 −$2 -46%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Youri Tielemans be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zion Suzuki be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Micky van de Ven be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 03 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 02 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 02 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 02 $19 −$11 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$16 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$9 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 SELL Yes 94¢ $5 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 93¢ $5 14h
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 23h
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 31h
Will Adrien Rabiot be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 35h
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 36h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 50¢ $3 45h
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 46h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will Youri Tielemans be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 92¢ $0 2d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 92¢ $5 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 SELL Yes 82¢ $4 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will Youri Tielemans be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 95¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 730 history records