Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb47b…c6b1 sports 908 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,795 (-5%) realized −$4,789 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%362W / 544L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$405est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$692
7 days−$1,432
14 days−$2,110
30 days−$2,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$4,631
other 39% −$383
finance 0% −$20
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 25% -47.9%
≤30d 68 -33.8% -40.1% 26% 22% -33.7%
≤90d 300 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 36% -23.0%
all 906 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 34% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 34% -14.4%
10% -22.7% 30% -22.6%
15% -30.2% 26% -30.1%
20% -37.0% 21% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$36 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$4,789
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses362 / 544
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$405
Open positions2
Markets (closed)906 / 908
History coverage225d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 906 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Sakellaridis (-1.5) vs Tabur (+1.5) Sakellaridis 35¢ 31¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-11%)
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) Tabur 28¢ 28¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $101 −$18 -18%
Baena vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $122 +$92 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $168 +$50 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Barton vs. Coppejans: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $304 −$304 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $193 +$68 +35%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$9 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $143 +$114 +79%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $244 −$101 -41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$37 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$13 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$2 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$2 +2%
Set Handicap: Clarke (-1.5) vs Boyer (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$68 +166%
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $236 −$55 -23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
McCabe vs. Jong: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Philip Henning Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $203 −$203 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $369 −$65 -18%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $203 −$5 -2%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 06 $101 −$8 -8%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $203 +$118 +58%
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) Jun 06 $13 −$2 -14%
Azkara vs. Montsi: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 06 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $101 −$4 -4%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 05 $102 −$7 -7%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $102 −$44 -43%
Heilbronn: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Henri Squire Jun 05 $203 +$217 +107%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $102 +$109 +107%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $203 −$32 -16%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $203 +$184 +91%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 04 $102 −$58 -57%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 04 $604 +$46 +8%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $203 −$42 -20%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $203 −$203 -100%
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 03 $111 −$111 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Tabur (-1.5) vs Sakellaridis (+1.5) BUY Tabur 28¢ $23 1h
Set Handicap: Sakellaridis (-1.5) vs Tabur (+1.5) BUY Sakellaridis 35¢ $61 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 44¢ $83 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $101 1h
Baena vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $214 1h
Baena vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $122 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $165 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 41¢ $111 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $102 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $257 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $143 21h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Jesper de Jong 31¢ $143 21h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $244 25h
Barton vs. Coppejans: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $304 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $305 39h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $51 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $218 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $10 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $19 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 27¢ $37 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $97 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $72 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $151 40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $152 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $261 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.79 · official $137.16 · 2120 history records