Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb47a…c6d2 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$8
other 18% $0
politics 14% $0
crypto 10% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 25% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 7% -8.6%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 7% -8.6%
all 39 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage293d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $23 −$2 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $144 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 −$3 -14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $128 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 +$14 +17%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $2 $0 -1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $32 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Sep 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $56 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $30 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $30 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $43 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $26 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.49 · official $56.11 (match) · 161 history records