Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb477…673e weather 326 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$352 (-8%) realized −$343 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%136W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$19
14 days+$10
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$115
weather 20% −$98
other 15% −$22
sports 8% −$56
tech 8% −$45
world 7% −$13
crypto 5% −$24
finance 2% −$21
economics 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 68% 28% -4.6%
≤30d 76 -6.3% -15.2% 61% 12% -12.2%
≤90d 307 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 11% -17.9%
all 307 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 11% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 11% -17.9%
10% -25.9% 2% -25.7%
15% -33.1% 1% -32.9%
20% -39.6% 1% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses136 / 171
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)307 / 326
History coverage65d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 64¢ 64¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 80¢ 88¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 83¢ 89¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 70¢ 67¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 46¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 63¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Trump praise Delcy Rodriguez by June 30? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -41%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$19 +262%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +57%
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$2 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Jun 10 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 10 $15 −$6 -40%
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $250? Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $255? Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $38 −$3 -7%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 06 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 05 $15 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 04 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 03 $15 $0 -2%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 02 $15 −$3 -20%
Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races? Jun 02 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 30 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary May 30 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima May 29 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Dusty Johnson win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican prima May 29 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 29 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 29 $30 −$7 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $28 56m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 76¢ $29 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 70¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 4h
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 85¢ $6 6h
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 85¢ $8 6h
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 85¢ $6 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 84¢ $20 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL No 86¢ $2 11h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 73¢ $46 11h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 94¢ $5 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 74¢ $20 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 80¢ $45 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 13h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $45 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 70¢ $28 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 15h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 17h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $46 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 22h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 66¢ $46 24h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 25h
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 26h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 82¢ $15 28h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $15 30h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $15 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.91 · official $315.91 (match) · 941 history records