Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb476…6eac
crypto · 230 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$94 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$212 · open +$306
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,130
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$306
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses93 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions32
Markets (closed)198 / 230
History coverage45d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 32 History 198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$66
14 days+$1,668
30 days+$1,530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,991 $2,986 −$4 (-0%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,386 $1,387 +$1 (+0%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $585 $922 +$337 (+58%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $670 $655 −$15 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $378 $381 +$3 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $360 $335 −$25 (-7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $265 $312 +$48 (+18%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $291 $292 +$1 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 85¢ $249 $255 +$6 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $165 $178 +$14 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $160 $168 +$8 (+5%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $156 $152 −$4 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $110 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $69 $100 +$32 (+46%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $84 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $90 $82 −$7 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $89 $78 −$10 (-12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $84 $77 −$7 (-8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $65 $68 +$2 (+4%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+2%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $32 $52 +$21 (+65%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $80 −$7 -9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $467 +$512 +110%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $363 +$42 +12%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $371 +$29 +8%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $238 +$62 +26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $210 +$205 +97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $145 −$142 -98%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $636 −$627 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $130 −$129 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $245 −$240 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2,747 +$6 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $613 +$264 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $415 −$97 -23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $327 +$307 +94%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $1,021 +$9 +1%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1480+? Jun 11 $270 +$2 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,486 +$14 +1%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $72 −$23 -32%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $4,696 +$4 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,574 +$4 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $4,949 +$51 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $181 −$161 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $320 −$10 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $52 +$73 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $156 −$150 -96%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $89 −$85 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $1,596 +$1,068 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $1,868 −$1,800 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $307 +$105 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $157 −$150 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $309 +$63 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 02 $258 −$250 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $157 −$150 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,326 +$3,944 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 01 $228 +$258 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $58 −$55 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $89 −$85 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $292 −$280 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $1,026 −$322 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 31 $53 +$155 +295%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $561 −$550 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $102 −$52 -51%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 53% +$423
world 18% +$63
other 18% −$733
economics 6% +$4
sports 3% +$335
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,991 1h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 100¢ $0 3h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 100¢ $388 3h
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 100¢ $997 3h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $73 6h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $80 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $979 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $415 11h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 39¢ $120 11h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 11h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 11h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $179 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $191 12h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 12h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 12h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $262 12h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $63 12h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $238 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 64¢ $57 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 12h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 12h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -14.4% -22.6% 59% 24% -9.8%
≤30d 109 -38.4% -44.2% 38% 26% -6.2%
≤90d 198 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 40% -9.8%
all 198 -6.5% -15.4% 47% 40% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -9.8%
10% -23.5% 37% -18.5%
15% -30.9% 33% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,129.68 · official $9,130.03 (match) · 1054 history records