Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb475…978c crypto 944 markets active 2d ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,756 (-6%) realized −$1,756 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%132W / 812L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days−$599
14 days−$600
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$450
other 33% −$2,793
crypto 4% +$66
world 1% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -26.3% -33.3% 42% 33% -41.9%
≤30d 114 -2.3% -11.6% 49% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 944 -65.2% -68.5% 14% 13% -16.5%
all 944 -65.2% -68.5% 14% 13% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.5% 13% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -71.5% 12% -24.5%
15% -74.3% 11% -31.8%
20% -76.8% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$15 · ×5.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,756
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses132 / 812
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions0
Markets (closed)944 / 944
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 944 Trades
no open positions (100 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $320 −$320 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $165 −$165 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $194 +$73 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $190 +$30 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 14 $57 −$52 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $245 +$134 +55%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $252 −$252 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $50 +$52 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $98 −$98 -99%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$5 -46%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $33 +$67 +203%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $38 +$62 +165%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $33 +$64 +194%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $32 +$68 +216%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $31 +$69 +226%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 08 $29 −$28 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 08 $35 −$34 -98%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $30 +$70 +238%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $25 +$75 +307%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 07 $29 −$28 -98%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 07 $39 −$38 -98%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 07 $38 −$37 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 07 $16 −$16 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $38 +$5 +13%
Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5) Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $39 −$38 -98%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Nouza/Oberleitner vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 02 $99 +$42 +43%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $35 +$68 +197%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $119 +$10 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $98 +$58 +60%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 01 $135 +$174 +128%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Jun 01 $101 +$33 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $11 −$11 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $170 −$169 -99%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Arevalo/Pavic vs Arends/Pel Jun 01 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $114 −$113 -99%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $128 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $68 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $77 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $51 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $114 40h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $194 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 86¢ $190 2d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL No 1¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $43 3d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $43 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $18 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $3 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $115 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $112 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $5 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $89 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 51¢ $12 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $46 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 25¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 56¢ $73 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 25¢ $26 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? SELL No 11¢ $2 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 13¢ $13 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 14¢ $14 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY No 19¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records