Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb473…046e crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-3%) realized −$103 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$60
politics 8% +$49
other 5% +$30
sports 5% −$16
tech 3% −$38
weather 1% −$20
finance 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -39.8%
≤30d 9 -29.8% -36.5% 44% 44% -20.5%
≤90d 30 +5.0% -5.0% 63% 60% -0.9%
all 138 -8.5% -17.3% 46% 44% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 44% -17.1%
10% -25.2% 42% -25.1%
15% -32.4% 41% -32.3%
20% -39.0% 39% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage127d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $44 $57 +$13 (+29%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $10 $52 +$42 (+416%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$16 +57%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $39 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 25 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 23 $55 +$39 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +86%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $26 +$31 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 16 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 16 $13 +$26 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 16 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 14 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 13 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $44 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.07 · official $216.07 (match) · 351 history records