Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb473…2416 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$107 (+19%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -16.5% -24.5% 42% 42% +24.3%
≤30d 19 -16.5% -24.5% 42% 42% +24.3%
≤90d 43 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 42% +13.8%
all 43 -12.6% -20.9% 44% 42% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 42% +13.8%
10% -28.5% 35% +2.9%
15% -35.4% 30% -7.0%
20% -41.7% 28% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$36 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$27 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $15 +$24 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 26 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 25 $70 +$18 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 25 $66 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$14 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 25 $6 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 25 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$7 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 25 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 25 $8 +$14 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 25 $12 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records