Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb46c…a33c crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-5%) realized +$0 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$47
other 6% −$6
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
weather 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 20% -44.4%
≤30d 20 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 20% -44.4%
≤90d 20 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 20% -44.4%
all 20 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 20% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.5% 20% -44.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.1% 15% -49.7%
15% -52.2% 15% -54.6%
20% -56.9% 15% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)20 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? Up 90¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? No 79¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 90¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? Jun 28 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 40m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.03 · official $9.03 (match) · 57 history records