Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb468…0cba crypto 693 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,619 (-18%) realized −$1,770 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%250W / 658L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$335
other 30% +$512
sports 6% −$3
world 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 -52.7% -57.2% 15% 14% -73.0%
≤30d 739 -21.3% -28.8% 26% 25% -44.6%
≤90d 908 -16.4% -24.4% 28% 27% -41.9%
all 908 -16.4% -24.4% 28% 27% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 27% -41.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 25% -47.5%
15% -38.2% 24% -52.5%
20% -44.3% 23% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized−$1,770
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses250 / 658
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions10
Markets (closed)908 / 693
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 908 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $165 $270 +$105 (+64%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $120 $153 +$33 (+28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+34%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 47¢ 46¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$27 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $8 +$9 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$4 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$60 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $576.60 · official $576.60 (match) · 3500 history records