Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb467…af59
weather · 114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$78
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses14 / 30
Open positions70
Markets (closed)44 / 114
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day78.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 70 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 24¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 80¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+198%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 27¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? No 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? No 25¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? No 33¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? No 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 48¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +855%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$18 +847%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$9 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$10 +604%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$8 +761%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +856%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +581%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +697%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $21 −$13 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$11
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 18¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 17m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 24¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY Yes 1¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 35¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 40¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +80.2% +63.1% 32% 30% +26.6%
≤30d 44 +80.2% +63.1% 32% 30% +26.6%
≤90d 44 +80.2% +63.1% 32% 30% +26.6%
all 44 +80.2% +63.1% 32% 30% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.1% 30% +26.6%
10% ← realistic here +47.5% 30% +14.5%
15% +33.2% 30% +3.4%
20% +20.2% 27% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.67 · official $77.47 (match) · 180 history records