Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb465…0d8d sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,944 (-8%) realized −$18,046 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%64W / 61L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,820per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$1,227est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,523
7 days−$8,933
14 days−$9,096
30 days−$17,635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$3,267
other 29% −$12,260
politics 20% −$437
tech 3% +$2,085
world 1% −$2,385
crypto 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.5% -26.2% 39% 23% -22.9%
≤30d 74 +8.3% -2.0% 46% 31% -23.2%
≤90d 125 +23.7% +11.9% 51% 37% -15.9%
all 125 +23.7% +11.9% 51% 37% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.9% 37% -15.9%
10% +1.2% 32% -24.0%
15% ← realistic here -8.6% 28% -31.3%
20% -17.5% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,897) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$821 vs −$1,129 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$18,046
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses64 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,227
Open positions4
Markets (closed)125 / 129
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1,820
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 53¢ 62¢ $266 $312 +$47 (+18%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $261 $292 +$30 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 66¢ 99¢ $53 $79 +$26 (+50%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $172 −$19 -11%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $115 +$5 +4%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $200 +$300 +150%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $726 −$725 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $867 −$867 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,160 +$1,840 +44%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $13,216 +$59 +0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,385 −$2,385 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $207 −$202 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13,983 −$13,983 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $83 −$2 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $900 +$7,122 +792%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,911 +$8 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,944 +$242 +6%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5,054 +$500 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $740 +$260 +35%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2,057 −$2,054 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5,844 +$1,971 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,766 +$198 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $562 +$132 +24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $406 −$295 -73%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,978 +$451 +15%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $8,675 +$1,208 +14%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $6,755 −$2,560 -38%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,897 +$237 +12%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $1,320 +$1,430 +108%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $1,297 +$458 +35%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $607 −$500 -82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $206 −$206 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $13,423 −$13,423 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,174 +$1,556 +133%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $82 +$33 +40%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $1,201 +$99 +8%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $1,319 +$10 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $198 +$314 +158%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 53m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No 8¢ $4 56m
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 63¢ $366 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $126 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $134 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 61¢ $1,220 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.67 · official $690.67 (match) · 1810 history records