Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb461…fa3b crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate82%47W / 10L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$5
crypto 11% +$1
other 6% +$6
tech 3% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 57 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses47 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage525d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 02 $37 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.28 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 15 $49 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $4,664 −$5 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $23 61d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 122d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 149d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $50 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $52 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $13 210d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $39 211d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $12 240d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 241d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 242d
Will Solana reach $300 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 272d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $39 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 300d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $33 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $37 334d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 365d
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $22 365d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.05 · official $53.05 (match) · 121 history records