Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb45f…f1f8 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-7%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%57W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$8
other 14% −$4
culture 6% +$1
tech 4% $0
sports 2% −$5
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.3% -9.2% 81% 46% -9.0%
≤30d 28 -3.2% -12.4% 79% 43% -12.0%
≤90d 74 -2.0% -11.4% 61% 47% -11.2%
all 102 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 40% -16.8%
10% -23.0% 31% -24.8%
15% -30.4% 25% -32.0%
20% -37.3% 17% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses57 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage207d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 05 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 01 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 01 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 30 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 20 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 20 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 07 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 03 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 50m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 192 history records