Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb45e…0bea world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$9
politics 26% −$1
other 16% $0
sports 11% −$11
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 72 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 80 +2.1% -7.6% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -16.4% 2% -18.7%
15% -24.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -31.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)80 / 82
History coverage525d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $60 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $40 −$2 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $124 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $111 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $23 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $39 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $2 $0 -19%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $32 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $8 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $33 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $33 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $30 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $2 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $20 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 62¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $21 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $16 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $13 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.35 · official $33.30 (match) · 305 history records