Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B4 0xb45a…6c15 sports 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+60%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +177% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +132% what you keep after slip
Net edge+132%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$11
sports 44% −$2
crypto 6% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+150.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +177.3% +150.9% 57% 57% +82.7%
≤30d 7 +177.3% +150.9% 57% 57% +82.7%
≤90d 7 +177.3% +150.9% 57% 57% +82.7%
all 7 +177.3% +150.9% 57% 57% +82.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +150.9% 57% +82.7%
10% +126.9% 29% +65.2%
15% +105.0% 14% +49.3%
20% +84.9% 14% +34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +177% · $-wt +102% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +19%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$52 +1464%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 0m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 7m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 25m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $4 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.57 · official $18.57 (match) · 17 history records