Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb456…ff41 crypto 546 markets active 6d ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 172d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,565 (-3%) realized −$1,565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%356W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$131
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$990
sports 9% −$430
other 7% −$188
world 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -17.8% -25.6% 55% 51% -5.5%
≤30d 85 -11.8% -20.2% 59% 53% -6.7%
≤90d 446 -15.4% -23.4% 59% 45% -20.8%
all 546 -6.7% -15.5% 65% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 48% -12.2%
10% -23.6% 31% -20.6%
15% -31.0% 22% -28.3%
20% -37.8% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$72 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses356 / 190
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)546 / 546
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$105
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 546 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$46 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $84 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $45 −$27 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$47 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$16 +14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $186 −$146 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$53 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $69 −$63 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $279 +$210 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $325 +$175 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $209 +$191 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $188 +$62 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $59 −$22 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$38 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$27 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$21 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $159 +$43 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $122 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$17 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $68 +$32 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $71 +$29 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 3¢ $3 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records