Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb453…1ccd other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 213L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$40
sports 22% −$19
politics 8% −$6
culture 8% −$7
economics 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 226 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage128d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $403 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $523 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $377 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $411 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $166 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $320 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $551 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $386 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $158 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $185 −$1 -1%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $286 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $165 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $181 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $568 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 4h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 5h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 7h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 8h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 10h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 12h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 14h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 16h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 19h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 19h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 26h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 28h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 29h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 30h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $6 32h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $6 33h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 35h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 37h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 39h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 41h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 44h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 45h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 47h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1341 history records