Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B4 0xb452…db61 crypto 1063 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$899 (+2%) realized +$899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%845W / 218L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$46
14 days+$59
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$755
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.5% -21.8% 75% 29% -11.3%
≤30d 80 -1.7% -11.1% 85% 36% -9.3%
≤90d 307 -6.1% -15.0% 80% 36% -8.8%
all 1063 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 36% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -8.2%
10% -21.9% 14% -17.0%
15% -29.4% 7% -25.0%
20% -36.4% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$18 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses845 / 218
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1063 / 1063
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1063 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $106 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $602 +$32 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8AM ET Jun 07 $301 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 31 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 31 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9AM ET May 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET May 31 $77 +$46 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6AM ET May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5AM ET May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4AM ET May 31 $51 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3407 history records