Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb44c…7739
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$758 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$751 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,003
Realized−$751
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage139d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 2 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $984 $977 −$7 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 12 $1,083 −$24 -2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 1? May 15 $212 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 23? Apr 01 $345 +$7 +2%
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Apr 01 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 23? Apr 01 $16 +$3 +16%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Apr 01 $49 +$4 +8%
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Apr 01 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $449 −$11 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? Mar 23 $41 −$5 -13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 23 $81 −$12 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 19? Mar 20 $138 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 21? Mar 20 $4 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 21? Mar 19 $4 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Mar 19 $56 +$1 +2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? Mar 11 $37 +$1 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 10 $94 +$4 +4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 02 $18 −$3 -17%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $48 +$3 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 26? Feb 26 $13 −$2 -18%
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $504 +$3 +0%
Will the State of the Union be 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $133 −$3 -2%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $334 +$5 +1%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 12 $1,668 −$377 -23%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026? Feb 06 $870 −$280 -32%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $1,059 −$17 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $1,935 +$78 +4%
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Jan 30 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 29 $500 −$42 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $82 −$75 -92%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 29 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January? Jan 28 $100 −$50 -50%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.04? Jan 27 $929 +$19 +2%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06? Jan 27 $1,730 +$72 +4%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? Jan 26 $495 −$23 -5%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Jan 24 $36 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$659
economics 21% +$62
weather 6% +$21
crypto 5% −$117
finance 4% −$22
world 1% −$45
culture 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 43m
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $376 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $52 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $376 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,059 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,005 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $78 28h
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 7¢ $36 26d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 1? BUY No 99¢ $212 72d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $21 81d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY No 98¢ $32 81d
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 81d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 81d
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 88¢ $130 81d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 23? BUY No 98¢ $345 81d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 23? BUY No 86¢ $16 81d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? SELL No 78¢ $36 81d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? BUY No 89¢ $41 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 73¢ $307 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 81d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? SELL Yes 54¢ $70 81d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 21? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 84d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 21? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 79¢ $399 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.2% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 3 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 19 -10.0% -18.6% 58% 26% -11.6%
all 44 -13.6% -21.9% 55% 11% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 11% -14.5%
10% -29.3% 7% -22.7%
15% -36.2% 2% -30.2%
20% -42.4% 0% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,002.70 · official $1,002.70 (match) · 148 history records