Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$6

7 days+$6

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Under	58¢	57¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5	Over	76¢	76¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Under	32¢	32¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-4%)
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?	Under	50¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-99%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	T1	29¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-98%)
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Over	54¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$12	+119%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$10	+$9	+86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

sports 64% −$12

other 36% −$8

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	29¢	$5	39m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5	BUY Over	76¢	$10	1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	58¢	$20	2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	32¢	$10	2h
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?	BUY Under	50¢	$20	2h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	85¢	$22	5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	54¢	$10	6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	7h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	50%	50%	+5.3%
≤30d	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	50%	50%	+5.3%
≤90d	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	50%	50%	+5.3%
all	4	+1.1%	-8.5%	50%	50%	+5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	50%	+5.3%
10%	-17.3%	50%	-4.8%
15%	-25.3%	50%	-14.0%
20%	-32.6%	50%	-22.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.