Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb444…a5a7 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate98%41W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
crypto 24% +$10
sports 11% $0
world 7% −$32
tech 6% +$1
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 6 -16.4% -24.3% 83% 0% -14.8%
all 42 -1.0% -10.5% 98% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -10.3%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$36 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses41 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage438d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $210 $210 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? May 06 $179 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? Apr 07 $208 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $160? Mar 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of February? Mar 10 $208 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? Feb 02 $80 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025? Nov 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $48 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $21 $0 +1%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5? Sep 06 $17 +$4 +22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Aug 01 $17 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? Jul 23 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 27 $63 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? May 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 2–9? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $300b and $310b on April 30? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 30 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 25–May 2? Apr 29 $89 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $109 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 10? Apr 11 $68 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $33 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $210 1h
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 19d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 97¢ $36 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 46d
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? BUY No 100¢ $173 65d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 75d
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 75d
Will Netflix reach $455 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 75d
Will Netflix reach $455 in March? BUY No 100¢ $208 92d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $160? BUY No 100¢ $54 103d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of February? BUY Yes 100¢ $208 120d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar BUY No 100¢ $30 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 146d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $28 195d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025? BUY No 100¢ $48 215d
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $48 245d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $21 290d
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5? BUY No 82¢ $17 292d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 325d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? BUY No 100¢ $24 334d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 100¢ $33 356d
Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6? BUY No 100¢ $23 384d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 100¢ $33 388d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? BUY Up 100¢ $63 390d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 25? BUY Down 97¢ $32 391d
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? BUY No 100¢ $32 394d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 21? BUY Up 100¢ $50 395d
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? BUY No 100¢ $32 396d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? BUY Down 98¢ $51 398d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23? BUY No 100¢ $30 399d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.59 · official $209.59 (match) · 86 history records