Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb442…bed7 other 401 markets active 7h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,783 (-8%) realized −$19,780 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%259W / 168L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$647per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$2,340est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,713
7 days−$7,653
14 days−$16,072
30 days−$21,768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$22,730
other 29% +$3,422
world 9% +$3,933
finance 0% +$927
politics 0% +$77
crypto 0% −$3
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% +$11
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 39% -29.4%
≤30d 106 +2.0% -7.7% 56% 42% -31.6%
≤90d 356 +33.1% +20.5% 60% 51% -14.9%
all 427 +37.7% +24.5% 61% 52% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.5% 52% -14.5%
10% +12.6% 43% -22.7%
15% ← realistic here +1.7% 33% -30.2%
20% -8.2% 28% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +74% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$541 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$19,780
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses259 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,340
Open positions36
Markets (closed)427 / 401
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$647
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 62¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-07 House seat? No 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 80¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 76¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 89¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 78¢ 75¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 87¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch? No 84¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No 88¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 83¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on March 9? Jun 19 $1 $0 -48%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
US strikes Iraq by March 31 Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Jun 19 $1 $0 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? Jun 19 $1 $0 +68%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Jun 19 $0 +$1 +224%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on February 27? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of February? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on February 27? Jun 19 $1 $0 -1%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 2? Jun 19 $1 $0 -16%
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? Jun 19 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony? Jun 19 $0 $0 +1%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on March 3? Jun 19 $0 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February Jun 19 $0 $0 -24%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Jun 19 $0 $0 -12%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +12%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +112%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on February 27? Jun 19 $0 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -3%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Jun 19 $0 $0 +4%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +55%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -13%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? Jun 19 $0 $0 -30%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on March 31? Jun 19 $0 $0 -23%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 +198%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on March 31? Jun 19 $0 $0 -112%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 19 $0 −$1 -391%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Jun 19 $0 $0 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,592 −$1,592 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1,031 −$1,031 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,654 −$1,557 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,014 +$136 +13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $186 −$106 -57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $944 +$335 +36%
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $881 +$609 +69%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $884 +$29 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $568 7h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,031 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $1,024 7h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $91 33h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,551 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $186 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,014 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $81 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $186 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,279 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $572 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $372 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $103 3d
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $1 3d
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? SELL No 87¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? SELL No 99¢ $2 3d
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 3d
Will the Republican Party win the GA-02 House seat? SELL No 93¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,490 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $368 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $508 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $913 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 57¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.17 · official $23.94 · 3500 history records