Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb442…d6ee other 227 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$453 (+3%) realized +$316 · open +$137
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate73%136W / 50L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$3,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$27
14 days+$9
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$317
politics 14% +$21
world 9% −$17
sports 7% +$57
weather 2% −$41
culture 2% +$45
tech 1% +$4
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.0% +31.2% 100% 100% +17.1%
≤30d 14 +9.9% -0.6% 64% 64% -34.3%
≤90d 53 +5.5% -4.6% 79% 53% -6.1%
all 186 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 41% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 41% -7.3%
10% -17.3% 23% -16.2%
15% -25.3% 16% -24.3%
20% -32.6% 6% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$3,365
Realized+$316
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses136 / 50
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions41
Markets (closed)186 / 227
History coverage244d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 94¢ $183 $189 +$6 (+3%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 44¢ 78¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 80¢ 93¢ $120 $139 +$19 (+16%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 56¢ 70¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 77¢ 90¢ $104 $121 +$17 (+17%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 60¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 95¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 89¢ 92¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 75¢ 76¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? No 87¢ 88¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 89¢ 93¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? No 68¢ 66¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 84¢ 82¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 86¢ 84¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 91¢ 87¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 87¢ $61 $87 +$26 (+43%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 70¢ $70 $75 +$5 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$26 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $20 +$6 +30%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$21 +204%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $502 +$55 +11%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $76 +$35 +46%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $142 −$27 -19%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 +$23 +46%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $70 +$1 +2%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 09 $187 +$6 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $201 +$14 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $186 +$14 +8%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $20 +$7 +34%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $77 +$33 +44%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $210 +$4 +2%
Ben Pasternak jailed? Apr 30 $50 +$10 +20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $20 +$2 +9%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $68 +$31 +45%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $50 +$8 +15%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $64 +$5 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 29 $176 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 29 $225 +$8 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $100 +$80 +80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or below on April 7? Apr 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 7? Apr 07 $50 −$32 -63%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 05 $45 −$45 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $50 +$10 +20%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $50 +$27 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $24 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 10d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $51 18d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 71¢ $10 18d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 83¢ $10 22d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 68¢ $10 22d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $20 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 22d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $10 23d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $51 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 25d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $8 26d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 27d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 28d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 28d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 29d
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $2 30d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31d
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 89¢ $101 32d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,365.06 · official $3,365.07 (match) · 870 history records