Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb43e…ef83 crypto 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$137 (-6%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%82W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$367
7 days+$205
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$395
sports 16% +$227
finance 16% +$25
other 10% +$312
world 4% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -39.2% -45.0% 17% 17% +28.9%
≤30d 24 -39.2% -45.0% 17% 17% +28.9%
≤90d 261 -14.8% -22.9% 31% 25% -3.1%
all 261 -14.8% -22.9% 31% 25% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 25% -3.1%
10% -30.3% 22% -12.3%
15% -37.0% 20% -20.8%
20% -43.2% 16% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses82 / 179
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 262
History coverage86d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $92 +$317 +344%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $43 +$89 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$69 +336%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 +$369 +1174%
Will "Points" be said 25+ times during Eurovision? May 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 29 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 29 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $6 +$5 +82%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $6 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $92 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $7 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 14¢ $33 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $43 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $51 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $18 3d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 8¢ $12 4d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Felix Nmecha: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Jonathan Tah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Joshua Kimmich: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 4d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 19¢ $20 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 4d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $34 5d
Will "Points" be said 25+ times during Eurovision? SELL No 0¢ $0 32d
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Will "Points" be said 25+ times during Eurovision? BUY No 1¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 899 history records