Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B4 0xb43e…cdba world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$35
politics 22% +$3
other 17% −$4
sports 10% −$1
tech 2% −$19
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.0% -4.1% 62% 25% -7.6%
≤30d 27 +1.5% -8.2% 41% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 43 +3.4% -6.4% 42% 7% -9.3%
all 90 +1.6% -8.1% 36% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage326d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $3 $0 +16%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $22 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $194 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $101 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $88 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $66 −$3 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 +$14 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $196 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $109 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $110 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $300 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $112 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $253 +$13 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $98 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $174 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $102 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $80 −$2 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $290 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $73 −$19 -26%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $658 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $730 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $87 +$2 +3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 09 $8 $0 -6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $121 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $49 15h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $70 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $78 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $78 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $99 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $91 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $116 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $116 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $88 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $88 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $47 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $66 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $59 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records