Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb43d…59f3 sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$3
other 22% −$3
politics 21% −$2
economics 10% $0
crypto 6% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 141 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage157d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $39 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $106 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 27 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $137 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $161 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $144 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 13d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $39 26d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $39 26d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $39 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $40 36d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $35 113d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $35 113d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 113d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 113d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $34 113d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $34 113d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $34 113d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $34 113d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $39 113d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $39 113d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 113d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $39 113d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $38 115d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $38 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $40 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 115d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 115d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $34 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $34 115d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 119d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 119d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $39 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.02 · official $39.02 (match) · 598 history records