Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb436…2728 crypto 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,584 (-6%) realized −$1,584 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%207W / 129L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day109.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$387
other 18% +$759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -26.8% -33.7% 52% 36% -3.1%
≤30d 336 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 51% -5.4%
≤90d 336 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 51% -5.4%
all 336 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 51% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 51% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 39% -14.4%
15% -25.0% 27% -22.7%
20% -32.3% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$36 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,584
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses207 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day109.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $205 −$125 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$55 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $124 +$102 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $209 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $114 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $115 +$79 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $138 −$138 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$20 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $138 +$62 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $539 +$180 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $395 +$77 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $125 +$18 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $162 +$35 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $356 +$32 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $90 +$15 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $339 +$71 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$18 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $395 +$102 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$8 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$6 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -87%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$15 +79%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $34 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET May 31 $49 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 31 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $19 +$21 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 20m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records