Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb434…8b4f sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$301 (+29%) realized +$215 · open +$86
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR85%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days+$282
14 days+$293
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +85%
net ROI/market (all)+89.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +116.7% +96.1% 83% 83% +29.4%
≤30d 13 +109.8% +89.8% 85% 85% +28.6%
≤90d 13 +109.8% +89.8% 85% 85% +28.6%
all 13 +109.8% +89.8% 85% 85% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +89.8% 85% +28.6%
10% +71.7% 85% +16.3%
15% +55.1% 77% +5.0%
20% +39.9% 69% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late +122% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$125 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized+$215
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 64¢ $325 $410 +$86 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $61 +$139 +226%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$24 +116%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $61 +$49 +81%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 +$39 +126%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$52 +170%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $31 +$72 +235%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$49 +160%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $111 +$50 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$31 +303%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$28 +137%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$11 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $329 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $200 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $44 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $110 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $82 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $61 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $61 29h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $31 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 96¢ $103 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 28¢ $31 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $80 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $31 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $161 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $111 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $41 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $48 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 24¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 78¢ $40 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.50 · official $404.13 · 25 history records