Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb433…6045 politics 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,378 (+1%) realized +$1,378 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%40W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,130per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$109
politics 41% −$82
sports 11% +$1,376
culture 3% −$7
world 1% −$44
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 +6.9% -3.3% 18% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 87 -10.3% -18.8% 9% 6% -9.0%
all 155 +0.5% -9.1% 26% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 10% -8.8%
10% -17.8% 10% -17.6%
15% -25.7% 10% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,363) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$6 · ×8.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized+$1,378
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses40 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)155 / 157
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,130
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $386 $386 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $331 $331 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $359 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,880 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,820 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,055 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,668 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,676 −$5 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,472 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,998 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,153 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $60 +$33 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $75 +$72 +97%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,405 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $410 +$2 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,506 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $64 +$28 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $45 +$58 +129%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,370 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $3,383 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $3,230 −$4 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $965 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $386 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $359 23h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $359 25h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $467 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $467 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $652 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $653 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $425 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $426 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,045 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $853 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $854 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $331 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 11d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,326 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,326 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,238 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,240 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $945 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,012 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 14d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.96 · official $716.96 (match) · 493 history records