Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb42e…00f3 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+27%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$39
crypto 13% +$23
sports 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +41.3% +27.9% 57% 50% +24.0%
≤30d 14 +41.3% +27.9% 57% 50% +24.0%
≤90d 14 +41.3% +27.9% 57% 50% +24.0%
all 14 +41.3% +27.9% 57% 50% +24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.9% 50% +24.0%
10% +15.6% 50% +12.2%
15% +4.5% 50% +1.3%
20% -5.8% 36% -8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.61 per $1 lost it wins $4.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$24 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$7 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $12 $0 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +441%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $56 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.55 · official $79.55 (match) · 31 history records