Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb42d…0152 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1
sports 26% $0
other 19% −$1
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage178d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $260 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $89 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $181 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $181 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $181 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $181 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $182 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $182 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $182 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 05 $182 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $182 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $174 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 31 $177 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 13d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $89 26d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $89 27d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 34d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 38d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 38d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $89 40d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $89 41d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 43d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 44d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 50d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 50d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 69d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 70d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $90 73d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $90 73d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $181 88d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $181 89d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $181 97d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $181 97d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $181 100d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $181 100d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $181 103d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $181 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records