Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb42d…2177 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-60%) realized −$287 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$277
sports 5% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-77.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -75.3% -77.6% 14% 14% -79.0%
≤30d 7 -75.3% -77.6% 14% 14% -79.0%
≤90d 7 -75.3% -77.6% 14% 14% -79.0%
all 7 -75.3% -77.6% 14% 14% -79.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.6% 14% -79.0%
10% -79.8% 14% -81.0%
15% -81.7% 14% -82.9%
20% -83.5% 14% -84.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$55 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$287
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $18 −$17 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $137 −$134 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 29h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 England? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $97 41h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 16¢ $51 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.37 · official $94.37 (match) · 13 history records