Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb42c…f70d other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,768 (+17%) realized +$1,771 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3,622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$3,090
other 29% −$889
crypto 7% +$42
politics 6% −$497
tech 3% −$16
world 2% −$18
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +138.0% +115.4% 100% 100% +115.4%
≤90d 4 +34.5% +21.6% 50% 50% +48.8%
all 109 -22.1% -29.6% 35% 31% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 31% +5.5%
10% -36.3% 28% -4.6%
15% -42.5% 24% -13.8%
20% -48.1% 20% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$47 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$1,771
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 71
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage599d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,624 +$3,622 +138%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $1,559 −$511 -33%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Apr 11 $119 +$158 +133%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 22 $6 +$26 +426%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $46 +$58 +127%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Feb 01 $10 +$3 +33%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Feb 01 $10 +$4 +35%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Feb 01 $30 +$14 +46%
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Jul 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Jul 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? Jul 11 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
US-China trade deal before June? Jun 06 $30 −$8 -26%
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 08 $378 +$113 +30%
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June? May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel military action on Yemen before June? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Elon out of Trump administration before July? May 07 $10 $0 -2%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? May 07 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025? May 07 $20 −$8 -39%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? May 07 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $20 −$14 -71%
Macron out in 2025? May 07 $10 −$5 -48%
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlay May 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? May 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? May 07 $11 +$1 +9%
US debt downgrade in 2025? May 07 $50 −$2 -3%
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act? May 07 $15 +$5 +36%
Israel military action against Iran before July? May 07 $20 +$1 +5%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 07 $20 +$4 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? May 07 $20 +$4 +21%
US recession in 2025? May 07 $20 +$5 +23%
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Peter Dutton lose his seat? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 30 $20 +$67 +334%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-29? Apr 30 $100 +$79 +79%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $100 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $900 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,724 27d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 28¢ $306 52d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,048 52d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,281 76d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 27¢ $278 76d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $119 96d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 102d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 102d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 102d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? BUY No 44¢ $46 104d
Will Inter Miami CF beat Al Ahly? BUY Yes 47¢ $366 377d
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley BUY OMalley 33¢ $10 385d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 385d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 385d
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 385d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? BUY No 45¢ $10 414d
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? BUY No 74¢ $10 414d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? BUY No 75¢ $10 414d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 64¢ $20 414d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? BUY No 53¢ $10 414d
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? BUY No $5 414d
US-China trade deal before June? BUY No 80¢ $10 414d
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? BUY No 75¢ $10 414d
Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? BUY No 82¢ $10 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.77 · official $236.78 (match) · 260 history records