Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb42c…d3fb crypto 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%329W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$9
14 days+$130
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$10
world 6% $0
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% −$1
sports 0% $0
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -10.8% -19.3% 71% 71% -9.0%
≤30d 421 -6.4% -15.3% 69% 64% -8.4%
≤90d 506 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 61% -9.5%
all 506 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 61% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 61% -9.5%
10% -23.2% 38% -18.1%
15% -30.7% 12% -26.0%
20% -37.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses329 / 177
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)506 / 506
History coverage79d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 506 Trades
no open positions (132 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$13 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$12 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$27 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$12 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$11 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $62 +$18 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $34 +$6 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $44 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $38 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $43 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $40 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $39 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $37 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $7 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $43 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $40 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $41 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $43 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $39 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $38 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $39 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 945 history records