Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb428…74c8 sports 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,327 (-5%) realized −$1,663 · open +$336
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%145W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$279est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$295
14 days−$861
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,663
other 30% +$430
world 2% −$297
crypto 1% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 42% -15.2%
≤30d 186 -11.3% -19.7% 42% 41% -10.8%
≤90d 321 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 44% -16.6%
all 321 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 44% -16.6%
10% -16.9% 43% -24.5%
15% -24.9% 42% -31.8%
20% -32.3% 41% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$68 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$2,674
Realized−$1,663
Unrealized+$336
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses145 / 176
Est. fees paid−$279
Open positions13
Markets (closed)321 / 334
History coverage48d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $700 $704 +$4 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 50¢ 62¢ $345 $433 +$88 (+26%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 66¢ $252 $292 +$41 (+16%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 94¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 42¢ 84¢ $100 $199 +$99 (+99%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 70¢ $120 $168 +$48 (+40%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $92 $121 +$29 (+31%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 42¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $83 $72 −$11 (-13%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $17 +$7 (+70%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $84 +$66 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $189 −$189 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $40 +$19 +48%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 27 $152 +$102 +67%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $165 −$163 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $81 +$89 +109%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $151 −$150 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $141 +$168 +119%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $148 −$69 -47%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $79 −$27 -34%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $87 +$143 +165%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $258 +$251 +97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $123 −$122 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 25 $135 −$134 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $102 +$122 +120%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $102 +$98 +97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $253 +$157 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $116 +$84 +72%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 −$18 -18%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $21 +$11 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $187 −$185 -99%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $142 +$156 +109%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $319 −$313 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $229 −$93 -41%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $302 +$308 +102%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $102 +$80 +78%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $91 +$43 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$199 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$46 -90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $121 +$33 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $91 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $48 7h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $47 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 42¢ $102 8h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $130 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $141 12h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $12 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $2 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $31 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $6 15h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 42¢ $102 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 52¢ $104 19h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 20h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 27h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 42¢ $84 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $35 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 30h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 30h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 30h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $84 32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $81 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $34 32h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 32h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $0 45h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $20 45h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,674.31 · official $2,660.46 (match) · 915 history records