Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B4
0xb427…4c62
weather · 550 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,230 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,000 · open −$240
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,128
Realized−$1,000
Unrealized−$240
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses352 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions55
Markets (closed)519 / 550
History coverage29d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day108.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 55 History 519 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$688
7 days−$965
14 days−$787
30 days−$1,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $529 $531 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $452 $458 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 88¢ $454 $441 −$14 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 96¢ 90¢ $436 $407 −$29 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $279 $280 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $263 $266 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 88¢ 92¢ $234 $245 +$11 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 87¢ 87¢ $221 $222 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 92¢ 94¢ $203 $207 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $193 $202 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $196 $195 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $175 $179 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $168 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 98¢ $161 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 88¢ 100¢ $126 $143 +$17 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? No 90¢ 92¢ $121 $123 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $138 $116 −$22 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 89¢ 96¢ $98 $105 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? No 95¢ 99¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $79 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $64 $72 +$8 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 16? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15? Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15? Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 16? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $144 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $196 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $135 −$76 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $88 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $163 −$18 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $169 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $59 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $286 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $124 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $185 −$75 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $222 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $212 +$20 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,038 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $877 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$30 +149%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 +$4 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $192 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $81 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $199 −$193 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% −$893
finance 10% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $21 19m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $62 26m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $85 26m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $33 33m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $12 33m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 38m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $15 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $17 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $100 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $76 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 53m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $59 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -16.7% -24.6% 66% 15% -14.2%
≤30d 519 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 38% -11.6%
≤90d 519 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 38% -11.6%
all 519 -11.1% -19.6% 68% 38% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover108.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 38% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 21% -20.1%
15% -34.3% 12% -27.8%
20% -40.8% 7% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,128.39 · official $6,125.75 (match) · 3500 history records