Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb425…0bd2 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,293 (+1%) realized +$1,300 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%18W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$1,378per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$29
14 days−$2
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$24
politics 45% −$95
economics 4% −$8
sports 3% +$1,372
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$8
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +10.1% -0.4% 17% 13% -9.4%
≤90d 108 +8.5% -1.9% 17% 12% -8.8%
all 110 +8.3% -2.0% 16% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 12% -8.8%
10% -11.4% 12% -17.5%
15% -19.9% 12% -25.5%
20% -27.8% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,625) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$5 · ×20.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.97 per $1 lost it wins $3.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,276
Realized+$1,300
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses18 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,378
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,002 $1,001 −$1 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $232 −$0 (-0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,297 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $3,648 −$5 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,637 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,347 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,152 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,592 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $76 +$126 +165%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,991 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $673 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $412 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $4,354 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $5,335 −$8 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $74 +$42 +57%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $43 +$71 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $50 +$46 +93%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,582 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $4,390 −$5 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $5,189 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 17h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,351 19h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 20h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 22h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 25h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 26h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 42h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,227 44h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 47h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,148 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,123 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 3d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,430 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 6d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,236 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,419 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,421 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,389 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,391 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,275.62 · official $1,275.62 (match) · 356 history records