Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb424…3b71 other 288 markets active 22h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,553 (-15%) realized −$1,080 · open −$473
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%65W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$56
14 days+$943
30 days+$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,233
sports 23% −$231
finance 17% −$299
politics 6% +$162
world 4% −$319
crypto 4% +$317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +26.8% +14.8% 33% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 137 +29.3% +17.0% 34% 34% +3.4%
≤90d 252 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 25% -22.4%
all 252 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 25% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 25% -22.4%
10% -25.4% 25% -29.8%
15% -32.6% 25% -36.6%
20% -39.2% 25% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$28 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized−$1,080
Unrealized−$473
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses65 / 187
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions36
Markets (closed)252 / 288
History coverage71d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $127 $138 +$12 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $64 $114 +$51 (+79%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $96 $55 −$41 (-43%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+18%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $58 $32 −$26 (-46%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $125 $26 −$99 (-79%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $24 +$7 (+42%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $69 $22 −$47 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 53¢ 90¢ $11 $18 +$8 (+71%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 22¢ 16¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-25%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $51 $14 −$37 (-72%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-17%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $64 $10 −$53 (-84%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-49%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-53%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $39 +$59 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 −$20 -67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 +$21 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $33 +$17 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $11 +$39 +365%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $29 +$24 +82%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $7 +$43 +650%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $86 +$92 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $3 +$42 +1290%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$26 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $25 +$35 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$21 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19 +$18 +97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $95 −$7 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$27 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: Costa Rica O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $79 −$78 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$37 +96%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$16 +55%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $13 +$27 +216%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $60 +$122 +203%
IK Brage vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $10 +$62 +654%
IK Brage vs. Ljungskile SK: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $15 +$22 +146%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 09 $28 +$34 +121%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $32 +$53 +166%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $16 −$16 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 30¢ $9 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $14 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $9 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 23h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $25 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 44h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $7 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $2 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 23¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $7 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $52 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $13 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $16 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $33 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $695.89 · official $695.89 (match) · 957 history records