Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb421…696c sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$148 (+16%) realized +$146 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$139
other 37% −$23
crypto 9% +$53
world 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 65% +18.7%
≤30d 23 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 65% +18.7%
≤90d 23 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 65% +18.7%
all 32 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 56% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 56% +6.6%
10% -13.3% 53% -3.6%
15% -21.7% 41% -13.0%
20% -29.3% 25% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage222d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+6%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 42¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 65¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$6 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$9 +39%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $22 +$11 +47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$3 +39%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +138%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $67 +$20 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 +$44 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$89 +171%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$57 +96%
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$53 +85%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$9 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $55 −$31 -56%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Slovakia vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Nov 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $32 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $24 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $43 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $11 28h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $22 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $34 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $70 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $52 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $62 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $32 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $21 5d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $43 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $4 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? BUY No 26¢ $20 215d
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.79 · official $142.80 (match) · 66 history records