Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb41e…db27 sports 397 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,067 (+14%) realized +$3,065 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%201W / 195L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$289est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$2,171
14 days+$2,715
30 days+$3,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$3,106
other 8% −$91
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +73.0% +56.5% 69% 69% +87.9%
≤30d 85 +51.8% +37.3% 61% 59% +41.6%
≤90d 396 +6.5% -3.7% 51% 49% +3.2%
all 396 +6.5% -3.7% 51% 49% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 49% +3.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 46% -6.7%
15% -21.3% 41% -15.7%
20% -29.0% 36% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$39 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3,065
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses201 / 195
Est. fees paid−$289
Open positions1
Markets (closed)396 / 397
History coverage56d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 24¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $57 +$128 +226%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $102 +$221 +216%
Exact Score: Raja Club Athletic 2 - 0 COD Meknès? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Raja Club Athletic 1 - 0 COD Meknès? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $75 +$163 +216%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $112 +$221 +197%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $50 +$50 +101%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $214 +$217 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,150 +$1,116 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 +$54 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $143 +$157 +109%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $113 +$109 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +510%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $48 +$82 +172%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $104 +$106 +101%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$111 +140%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $7 +$9 +131%
Naef vs. Urhobo: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $21 +$27 +131%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $110 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 10 $26 −$26 -98%
Mannarino vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $3 +$1 +37%
Set 1 Winner: Vidmanova vs Stefanini Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
ITF Merzig: Sonja Zhenikhova vs Leonie Schuknecht Jun 10 $9 +$18 +197%
Samson vs. Semenistaja: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $36 +$38 +105%
Salkova vs. Trevisan: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $43 +$45 +106%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $48 +$74 +152%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $32 −$31 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Daystar vs Elevate (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Semra Aksu vs Alexandra Melnikova Jun 10 $40 −$39 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Minnen Jun 09 $22 −$21 -98%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $9 +$6 +65%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $28 −$27 -98%
Russia leading at halftime? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Set Handicap: Montgomery (-1.5) vs Garland (+1.5) Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 05 $20 +$18 +90%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 04 $10 +$10 +97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 03 $102 +$129 +127%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $162 +$164 +101%
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 02 $30 $0 -2%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $30 +$32 +105%
Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $121 +$26 +21%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 01 $61 +$52 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 30¢ $57 2h
Exact Score: Raja Club Athletic 2 - 0 COD Meknès? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Raja Club Athletic 1 - 0 COD Meknès? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 31¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 33¢ $112 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 31¢ $57 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 31¢ $18 3d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $214 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $338 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $812 5d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 45¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $102 6d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $56 6d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) SELL Noir Esports 48¢ $34 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $143 8d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $113 8d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 36¢ $48 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 16¢ $0 10d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $7 10d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 49¢ $104 10d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) BUY Noir Esports 43¢ $28 10d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Noir Esports (+1.5) BUY Noir Esports 42¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY HEROIC Academy 41¢ $79 10d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 47¢ $106 11d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 46¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY G2 Ares 32¢ $77 11d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 22¢ $23 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.49 (match) · 1472 history records